A novel method to detect the early warning signal of COVID-19 transmission.

BACKGROUND: Infectious illness outbreaks, particularly the corona-virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemics in recent years, have wreaked havoc on human society, and the growing number of infected patients has put a strain on medical facilities. It's necessary to forecast early warning signals of potential outbreaks of COVID-19, which would facilitate the health ministry to take some suitable control measures timely to prevent or slow the spread of COVID-19. However, since the intricacy of COVID-19 transmission, which connects biological and social systems, it is a difficult task to predict outbreaks of COVID-19 epidemics timely. RESULTS: In this work, we developed a new model-free approach, called, the landscape network entropy based on Auto-Reservoir Neural Network (ARNN-LNE), for quantitative analysis of COVID-19 propagation, by mining dynamic information from regional networks and short-term high-dimensional time-series data. Through this approach, we successfully identified the early warning signals in six nations or areas based on historical data of COVID-19 infections. CONCLUSION: Based on the newly published data on new COVID-19 disease, the ARNN-LNE method can give early warning signals for the outbreak of COVID-19. It's worth noting that ARNN-LNE only relies on small samples data. Thus, it has great application potential for monitoring outbreaks of infectious diseases.

[Mental health status and its influencing factors among general population and medical personnel in Guangdong Province during COVID-19 pandemic].

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the mental health status and its influencing factors among general population and healthcare professionals in Guangdong Province during COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: A online questionnaire-based survey was conducted from March 11st to March 15th, 2020.The questionnaire consisted of 4 parts to survey the participants'basic information, understanding of COVID-19 outbreak-associated information, cognition of COVID-19 pandemic and status of anxiety and depression.A total of 1433 valid responses were collected, including 706 from the general population and 727 from healthcare professionals.Cronbach's α coefficient and exploratory factor analysis were used for reliability and validity assessment.Chi-square, Wilcoxon and Kruskal-Wallis test were used for univariate analysis and ordinal or nominal logistic regression was used for multivariate analysis of the data. RESULTS: There was no significant difference between the general population and the healthcare professionals in terms of anxiety, depression and cognition of COVID-19 outbreak after adjustment for demographic variables, but the levels of anxiety and depression of these participants were both higher than those before the pandemic.In the participants from the general population, multivariate logistic regressions showed an OR for anxiety of 1.93(1.18, 3.17) among those who spent 1-2 h a day in reading COVID-19-related news, while those who spent over 3 h had an OR value for anxiety of 1.88(1.14, 3.11);the unmarried individuals had a depression OR of 2.19(1.51, 3.18). Inaccurate cognition of COVID-19 outbreak was positive correlated with the occurrence of anxiety and depression.Unmarried individuals and those with higher educational levels had better cognition of COVID-19 outbreak.Among the healthcare professionals, multivariate logistic regressions suggested that insufficient rest time and worries about contracting the virus contributed to the occurrence of anxiety and depression.Among the nursing staff, the OR of obvious depression was 2.99(1.45, 6.18).Compared to healthcare professionals not working in designated hospital for COVID-19, those who work in the designated hospitals had ORs for obvious and severe depression of 0.48(0.25, 0.93) and 0.39(0.17, 0.89), respectively.Concerns over contracting the virus increased the possibility of incorrect cognition of COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: Psychological interventions are essential for both the general population and healthcare professionals, especially for unmarried individuals in the general population and the nursing staff.An excessive exposure to COVID-19-related information may have detrimental effects on the mental health.For healthcare professionals, sufficient rest needs to be ensured, and education programs on COVID-19 should be implemented among both residents and healthcare professionals to improve their mental health.